Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 02 Mar 2020 06:00 to Tue 03 Mar 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 02 Mar 2020 02:24
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued across the W Mediterranean, N Algeria and W Sardinia mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across N Spain, SW France, W Mediterranean Sea and W Italy mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for NW Romania mainly for severe convective wind gusts and tornado chances.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A broad upper trough from the Atlantic is sharpening and amplifying into southern Europe. Its associated cold front and PV intrusion passes from N Spain/W France at 06Z to Balearic Islands/NW Italy/N Sardinia at 15Z, N Algeria/ S Sardinia/C Italy after 21Z and linger there because of tilting from WSW-ENE to SSW-NNE. The front and postfrontal airmass allow convection with modest CAPE, but around 25 m/s mean 1-3 km winds (35 ms initially over N Spain) and vertical shear over 12 m/s (0-1 km) and 20-35 m/s (0-6 km) support occurrence of severe wind gusts in convection (>25 m/s) as well as tornadoes. The cold front will likely produce a linear system with better organized severe wind gusts threat across the southern W Mediterranean basin and Sardinia, where CAPE is higher.
A separate shortwave trough that has produced thunderstorms over central Europe is activating over Romania around 09-12Z. With 25 m/s DLS, 15 m/s LLS and 20-25 m/s 1-3 km winds this system poses some threat of severe wind gusts and tornadoes as well.