Valid: Tue 11 Feb 2020 06:00 to Wed 12 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 10 Feb 2020 22:22
A level 1 was issued across NW and Central Europe mainly for severe convective wind gusts and to a lesser extent, for tornadoes.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
The jet-stream over Europe that has resulted in numerous extreme events the past few days, will continue to affect the largest part of the continent by the end of this forecast. CAPE is only marginal and mostly found over the North Sea, and overland is mostly expected to reach a few tens of J/kg or about 100 J/kg, following the diurnal heating. Without any profound surface frontal system crossing the level-1 area, we are expecting scattered storms embedded into this strongly sheared environment to produce severe convective gusts, while damaging winds will also be non-convective. A maritime polar air mass which is about to invade NW-Central Europe may also result in locally high accumulations of graupel. A few short-lived tornadoes/landspouts cannot be ruled out within isolated storm cells, especially near the coasts of Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark.