Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 28 Jan 2020 06:00 to Wed 29 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 27 Jan 2020 22:00
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Croatia mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Successive troughs cross the European domain, resulting in scattered marine storms but also rainfall and snowfall in West and Central Europe after a prolonged time of drought. On Tuesday, two main troughs will concentrate convection in West Europe and East Mediterranean. The first is approaching fast from the Atlantic and is associated with deep cyclogenesis south from Iceland and in North Sea. Storms in W Europe will produce locally high amounts of graupel even in low altitudes. The second trough has a slightly negatively tilted axis and will provide lift to unstable air masses near the coasts of Greece, Cyprus, and Turkey. Moreover, an embedded short-wave trough that will cross North Italy and will enter the Adriatic Sea during the night of Tuesday will destabilize the air masses close to the coasts of Croatia.

DISCUSSION

.... Croatia .....

The coasts of NW Balkans will be under the inflection point of an approaching trough and a developing ridge to the east. This pattern will result in strong baroclinicity with the development of a jet streak over the Adriatic Sea. NWP models forecast a few hundred of J/kg CAPE over the sea that will feed storms able to produce severe wind gusts and probably brief tornadoes under a strongly sheared environment.