Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 14 Jan 2020 06:00 to Wed 15 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Jan 2020 00:11
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for NW Ireland and N UK for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for SW Norway for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for the coast of Portugal and NW Spain for severe convective wind gusts.


SYNOPSIS & DISCUSSION

A deep low in NE Atlantic between Iceland and the British Isles is about to drop slightly below 940 hPa resulting in severe gales in Ireland and NW UK and later on in SW Norway. Models produce a few hundred J/kg of CAPE and a few storms are expected, mostly over the sea. The northern level-1 areas cover the threat of severe convective wind gusts but the actual threat from non-convective gusts will be higher.

An elongated cold front produced by a secondary depression in S UK will hit Portugal and NW Spain by the early morning of Wednesday 15/01 and severe wind gusts will also be the main threat for the coasts.

In the Mediterranean, it seems that a Sharav Cyclone has formed, as it has moved from the lee side of the Atlas mountain range to Libya where strong low-level baroclinicity is found. A few storms are expected, mostly offshore, embedded in the warm front travelling fast north towards Greece and Turkey, bringing loads of Saharan dust.