Valid: Tue 31 Dec 2019 06:00 to Wed 01 Jan 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 30 Dec 2019 23:05
No threat levels have been issued.
Cold air advection in SE Europe and Central Mediterranean creates locally steep lapse rates, but the air mass entering the Mediterranean has very low mixing ratios and convection is limited. At the same time, the strong ridge that has developed in western Europe will be disrupted by short-wave troughs, one in the Atlantic reaching France in the afternoon of Tuesday 31/12 and another one will cross Central Europe and will enter the Black Sea on Wednesday 01/01.
The best chances for organized convection will be found in southern Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus, where a few hundred J/kg of CAPE will overlap with meager DLS. In Crete, persistent rainfall will be mostly non-convective but still excessive, and S Turkey will also receive a few downpours but the area coverage of the events will not verify a level-1 threat.