Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 23 Dec 2019 06:00 to Tue 24 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Dec 2019 01:45
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across southern Turkey mainly for excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large vigorous low has shifted into southeastern Europe, with high pressure building over the Iberian Peninsula. The low destabilizes the Mediterranean from Italy to Cyprus, with CAPE of a few hundred J/kg and generally weak shear. The eastern parts of the trough advect relatively warm air onshore, concentrated in two convergence zones passing along the south coast of Turkey, the first one during the morning. The second one, passing during the evening and night, is a cold front intensifying east of Crete as the temperature gradient enhances. Both fronts see very strong moisture lifting on the Turskish coastal region, which likely triggers very persistent convection, even when CAPE is rather weak. Severe wind gusts can be produced as mean winds aloft are over 20 m/s. Strong LLS (>15 m/s) and DLS (>20 m/s) can give rise to tornadogenesis.