Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Dec 2019 06:00 to Tue 10 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Dec 2019 02:52
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

DISCUSSION

A trough axis across Denmark and France shifts eastward and produces a surface low over the central Mediterranean Sea, replacing existing south-central and eastern Mediterranean lows that still produce convective activity. Strong NW-ly cold air advection in low and mid levels across W Europe into the Mediterranean gradually raises the instability to a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Vertical shear is rather weak, and moist air advection on shorelines as well, generally, so severe weather, except an isolated excessive precipitation event, are not likely. A ridge builds up fast in the wake of the trough, with very tight pressure gradients producing high winds mainly across southern France especially late Monday and early Tuesday.