Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 04 Dec 2019 06:00 to Thu 05 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 03 Dec 2019 20:27
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across the coastline of Norway mainly for severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across the Balearic Sea and parts of eastern Spain mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued across Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Stable and dry weather conditions prevail over much of central and eastern Europe, underneath a ridge at mid-troposhere and associated with high pressure system at the lower troposphere. More unstable conditions are forecast over Scandinavia, underneath strong westerly flow. During Wednesday night, a plume of steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates over the Norwegian Sea will allow for a marginal CAPE build-up along the coastline. With 850 hPa flow approaching or exceeding 25 m/s, storms may be capable of severe wind gusts. Forecast hodographs show pronounced SRH along the coastlines and a tornado event can not be ruled out.

Further storms are anticipated over the Mediterranean, associated with a low over Iberia and a deep trough over Turkey. Severe weather is anticipated in a belt stretching from Tunisia towards the eastern coastline of Spain. While over Spain and the Balearic Sea, the primary threat will be excessive rainfall, given slow moving storms in saturated environment, storms over Tunisia may be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, given the DLS over 25 m/s and rather steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates.