Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 19 Nov 2019 06:00 to Wed 20 Nov 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 18 Nov 2019 21:29
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for Albania and Greece for excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, S Italy, and Greece mainly for excessive convective precipitation and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

The largest part of western and Central Europe is under the influence of a long-wave trough and as a result, strong WAA is found in eastern parts of the continent with unseasonably warm conditions. Several embedded short-wave troughs can be found in the forecast maps, one of them is about to create favorable conditions for severe weather in Mediterranean. Another trough is approaching from the Atlantic, reaching Ireland by the end of this forecast. A few storms will develop at the leading edge of this trough, reaching Portugal in the early morning of Wednesday.


DISCUSSION

.... Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, S Italy, and Greece ....

The axis of the trough over the Mediterranean becomes negatively tilted, with a jet streak extending from Tunisia towards the Balkans. The mid/low-level vorticity maxima will provide large-scale lift of very moist air masses (9-11 g/kg mixing ratio) over the Ionian Sea and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in high CAPE values. An environment SW of Albania and Greece, characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, 15-25 m/s DLS and more than 150 m2/s2 SREH0-3km will be conducive for the development of severe storms. A few supercells are expected, able to produce severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and excessive rainfall. Large hail is expected in the southern part of the level-2 area, with the least favorable environment in Albania (lower NCAPE).

The most intense convective activity is expected to reach Greece and Albania in the late afternoon or night of Tuesday, while in the morning, storms will affect mostly offshore areas and the coasts of S Italy. In southern Italy, flash floods will be the main threat, as well as in the rest of the Balkan States during the early morning of Wednesday marked with a level-1.

Tornadoes are expected mostly in the level-2 area where low-level shear and helicity will be maximum, but also waterspouts are expected in South Italy.