Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 30 Oct 2019 06:00 to Thu 31 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 29 Oct 2019 22:55
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for western coastline of the Ionian Sea mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for easter coastline of the Black Sea mainly for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An arctic airmass has advected over much of central and eastern Europe, yielding relatively dry and stable conditions over these areas. Over southern Europe, underneath a pool of shallow low geopotentials, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast. Most of the storms will occur ahead of the short-wave moving from the Tyrhennian Sea towards southeast. In an airmass characterised by mixing ratios of around 12 g/kg and lapse rates between 6 and 6.5 K/km, CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg is forecast across much of the Ionian and southern Adriatic Sea. While weak vertical wind shear will preclude well organised storms, profiles suggest potential for heavy rainfall. Waterspouts may also occur along the coastlines.

Excessive rainfall may also occur south of the frontal boundary located over the Black Sea with forecast profiles showing skinny CAPE, low LCLs and high RH through low to mid troposphere.