Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 14 Oct 2019 13:00 to Mon 14 Oct 2019 17:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 14 Oct 2019 13:29
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

DISCUSSION

Along a line from Jersey to Bordeaux, a line of storms has formed, featuring embedded waves/supercell structures has formed in an environment characterized my modest instability (400 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) but strong wind shear. With an 850 hPa wind speed of around 25 m/s near the line, and the wavy appearance on radar, a distinct threat of severe wind gusts exists. Locally, some large (2-4 cm) hail may occur and, in addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strong low-level shear (10-18 m/s 0-1 km).

The storm system is projected to travel north-northeastward. Model guidance suggests it should weaken during the evening as low-level cold air advection from the west intensifies and upper-level support is weak.