Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 29 Sep 2019 15:00 to Sun 29 Sep 2019 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 29 Sep 2019 14:13
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

DISCUSSION

MD area...

A shortwave trough over the British Isles is moving eastward. Ahead of the trough, strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion is expected to affect far northern France, southern Benelux, and west-Central Germany. In response, convective storms are expected to affect these areas this afternoon and evening, since the air-mass ahead of the trough is already approximately neutrally stratified. Some 500 J/kg of CAPE could locally develop.

Of concern is the vertical wind profile, that exhibits strong low-level shear (15-20 m/s in the 0-1 km layer) and some 200-400 m2/s2 0-1 km storm-relative helicity, that will help promote low-level rotation in any storms. Therefore, some tornado risk will exist over the indicated area. In addition, convectively-enhanced severe winds gusts are likely, in particular if small bowing segments develop. After 21 UTC, the risk may extend east of the indicated area.