Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Sep 2019 06:00 to Wed 18 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Sep 2019 21:21
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for SE Spain, NE Morroco, N Algeria, and N Tunisia for large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for Spain, NE Morroco, N Algeria, and N Tunisia for large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for NE Turkey, Georgia and Armenia mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A strong baroclinic zone has been established over Central Europe as cold air masses have been taken over Scandinavia and the Baltic States, whereas unseasonably warm air masses lie over the largest part of Mediterranean. The polar jet stream is about to increase in speed on Tuesday 17/09 as a fast-moving short-wave trough will cross Southern Scandinavia with SE direction. Convection should be limited below this configuration and strong wind gusts should be non-convective. Better conditions for convection can be found in the Iberian Peninsula and NW Africa, which are affected by a cut-off low. Moreover, another cut-off low over Turkey will move fast NE, increasing the potential for deep convection in the Caucasus area.

DISCUSSION

.... SE Spain, NE Morroco, N Algeria, and N Tunisia ....

As the cut-off low from the Atlantic approaches the Iberian Peninsula, the southwesterly flow brings warm and dry air masses from Africa. Steep mid-level lapse rates along with the moist PBL will create more than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE according to several NWP models. Important CIN, especially near the coasts of Spain and N Africa, should not inhibit convective initiation given the synoptic lift under the PVA. Storms are expected in the afternoon, able to produce large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive rainfall. Non-severe storm activity in N Spain may continue during the night.

.... NE Turkey, Georgia and Armenia ....

A dissipating cut-off low associated with still important PVA is about to move NE towards Russia. Enhanced thermodynamic conditions in the eastern flank of the trough may result in severe storms. A mid-level jet stream will increase DLS to 15-20 m/s, overlapping with a few hundreds of J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will be able to produce severe wind gusts and excessive rainfall. Only locally CAPE is expected to reach 1000 J/kg, and large hail threat is limited but an isolated event cannot be ruled out.