Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 16 Sep 2019 06:00 to Tue 17 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Sep 2019 02:29
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across NE Algeria and N Tunesia mainly for severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across Mallorca and Menorca mainly for severe convective wind gusts and large hail chances.


SYNOPSIS

To the south of a fierce western flow regime with cool air between 50-60 deg N,a mid level cold pool is weakening over the Iberian Peninsula and Balearic Islands. Another affects eastern Turkey and Georgia.


DISCUSSION

...Balearic Islands, N Africa...

The center of the mesoscale vortex shifts towards Mallroca. A plume of African dry mid level air with steep lapse rates overlays a moist boundary layer, producing over 1000 J/kg MUCAPPE across Balearic islands, SE Spain and N Algeria. However, models indicate the strong CIN and LFC-LCL difference with very dry profles not permitting convection. On the other hand, there is lift indicated from the shortwave trough across the Balearic Sea as well as low-level convergence. If a storm does form, it profits from moderate shear (15 m/s DLS) and 20 K delta-theta-e, supporting large hail and severe wind gusts,
Over N Africa the GFS uncapped parcel layer map reveals not all is capped, with a decent chance of high-based convection with similar threats as above.

...Turkey and Georgia...

Weak CAPE and warm EL tops are forecast but with weak cap under influence of the trough. The southeastern Black Sea is very humid and saturated with slow mean wind vectors. Some convective heavy rain events may occur, Over E Turkey strong shear combines with the weak CAPE, likely tearing convection apart rather than supporting supercells.