Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 25 Jul 2019 14:00 to Thu 25 Jul 2019 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Jul 2019 13:57
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Satellite and radar indicate that isolated storms are initiating over Normandy, the Massif Central and the Jura. They develop in an environment with 500-1500 J/kg CAPE and weak vertical wind shear. Additional storms will likely form in the next hours. Given the high cloud bases, they will bear a risk of severe wind gusts associated with microbursts. In addition, some marginally large hail may occur. In the west and northwest of the area where deep-layer shear is stronger, well-organized multicells are possible that could also produce larger hail, up to 5 cm in diameter.