Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 14 Jul 2019 15:00 to Sun 14 Jul 2019 17:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Jul 2019 15:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for the Balearic Islands.

Obviously CI failed to verify in the highlighted area until now. 12Z sounding of Palma was forecast nearly spot on by NWP forecast soundings, showing decent CAPE, 30 m/s DLS and only 30 J/kg CIN. However at 750 hPa a very weak second cap probably precluded CI until the strongest forcing passed east of the Islands. A bit of surprise is that neither the orography nor mesoscale forcing were able to break both weak capping layers.

Chances for CI continue during the following 2-3h beneath the upper wave with lingering enhanced DLS but greatest risk of organized DMC activity has probably ended as the mid-level speed max continues to the E. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are still possible in case of thunderstorm development during the following hours.