Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 14 Jul 2019 08:00 to Sun 14 Jul 2019 10:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 14 Jul 2019 08:04
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A Mesoscale Discussion was issued for the Balearic Islands.

Latest HVIS loop shows a belt of ascending air ahead of the upper trough which is currently analyzed over NE Spain. Release of elevated instability occurs within this band, which was sampled by the 00Z sounding of Palma (near dry adiabatic lapse rates between 750-550 hPa) and was also seen on various webcams on the Islands with rather high based convection. Temperatures at 2 m are in the mid-twenties with surface dewpoints in the lower twenties. Latest NWP output places the Islands currently along the tip of the eastward shifting EML plume and accompanying thermal ridge, so steady cooling is forecast from now on at mid/upper-levels with a weakening cap but also with weakening mid-level lapse rates.

Of interest is that many models backed off regarding QPFs around noon and during the afternoon hours, although forecast soundings during this time show only weak CIN in a 25-30 m/s DLS and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE setup including the passage of the mid/upper wave. Also mid-level lapse rates came in a bit weaker with somewhat warmer air at 600 hPa lingering a bit longer compared to previous model runs. Finally time-frame for CI may be limited with rapidly departing synoptic-scale forcing and more gradually eroding cap. However, with orografic support thunderstorm initiation is still possible.

Despite those growing uncertainties regarding storm coverage we still expect isolated to scattered CI from noon onwards with well organized convection, posing all kind of hazards.