Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 03 Jul 2019 14:00 to Wed 03 Jul 2019 18:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Jul 2019 14:05
Forecaster: PUCIK

A linear convective system has formed over N Italy and is currently advancing E - SE towards the airmass characterized by dewpoints between 15 and 20 deg C. At the same time, large temperature and dewpoint spreads are observed across NE Italy, Slovenia and N Croatia, which is also reflected by well mixed and deep boundary layer in the soundings from Rivolto and Zagreb at 12 UTC. Both soundings also show that shear is stronger than anticipated by the NWP. In the environment of 15 - 20 m/s of DLS and around 10 m/s of bulk shear in 0-3 km layer, convective system will likely maintain its intensity as it crosses into Slovenia and Croatia with strong cold pool. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat with this system. Large hail will be possible with more isolated cells, possibly supercells, forming ahead of the main line. However, this threat is limited by lack of steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, which is reflected by skinnny CAPE profiles.