Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 15 Jun 2019 06:00 to Sun 16 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 15 Jun 2019 01:51
Forecaster: TASZAREK

A level 2 was issued for NE Germany and N Poland mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, possibility of strong tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of CNTRL Europe, S France and Alps mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for parts of SW Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Persisting low over NW Europe bring another day with synoptic setup favoring severe weather outbreak over parts of CNTRL Europe. Warm, moist and highly unstable warm sector (ML CAPE > 3500 J/kg) stretches from Croatia up to S Baltic Sea. Around 1200 UTC an eastwardly moving cold front axis will be located from NE Germany, through W Czech Republic and Austria. Later in the day it will shift into W Poland bringing a lot of storm activity along its axis and ahead in the warm sector. Thanks to well amplified wave and developing surface low over NE Germany/NW Poland, a good synoptic-scale lift will be provided in the area of a prominent clockwise-curved hodographs (>300 m2/s2 SRH) and enhanced low-level wind shear (> 10 m/s). Given low dew point deficits, LCL will be in the range of 400-800m AGL. Deep layer shear stretching from 15 to 18 m/s should provide a dominant multicell storm mode with rapid clustering. However, isolated supercells in the early stages of the CI (and later embedded in the clusters) are possible and can be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out given prominent hodographs, decent instability and low LCLs, especially if isolated convective mode will take place. In the mature stage of the MCS, a bowing segments with severe and damaging wind gusts are possible scenario in N Poland.

For further details please refer to extended forecast: http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon_restricted/showforecast_md.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2019061606_201906132211_2_extendedforecast.xml