Extended Forecast
Valid: Tue 11 Jun 2019 06:00 to Wed 12 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 09 Jun 2019 22:39
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

East Germany, Czechia, West Poland, Austria, Slovenia, North-Central Croatia...

Numerical model guidance is in some disagreement about the amount recovery of the environment across Saxony, Northwest Bohemia and East Bavaria in the wake of Monday's activity. GFS and ICON predict a quicker recovery of the low level humidity compared to ECMWF.

Additionally, GFS has the strongest deep-layer shear and produces a fair amount of SRH as a result of a considerable backing of low-level flow north of the Alps, something ECMWF and ICON feature much less. In a scenario that blends these models, it appears likely that the environment will still be supportive of more supercells and later bowing structures. Large, possibly very large hail and wind gusts appear the primary threats. If shear follows the GFS scenario, low-level shear could be higher and the tornado risk would be enhanced. Some storms further into warm sector not excluded over Czechia, Austria, Slovenia, so warranting a level 1.

Northern Italy...

The environment is characterized by moderate (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and ample mostly unidirectional 0-6 km bulk shear in the 25-30 m/s range. As a result, widespread supercells with (very) large hail, wind and local very heavy rainfall will remain the risks over NW/N Italy.

East Denmark, South Sweden, parts of Latvia and Estonia, and the adjacent Baltic Sea...

One or more elevated MCS are expected to move across the indicated level 1 area with the main risks being very heavy rain, and, especially over Denmark and Sweden, locally large hail and severe winds gusts.

South and East Romania, North Bulgaria, North Moldova, Southwest Ukraine...

Across this region a fair amount of 0-3 km bulk wind shear (around 10 m/s) and moderate (1000-2000 J/kg) CAPE are expected, implying a risk of well-organized multicells with a risk primarily of large hail. Over rest of Balkans and Turkey, some CAPE is present, but wind shear so low that a risk level is not warranted although it could be argued that some marginally severe hail and local floods (due to slow storm motion) could occur.