Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 07 Jun 2019 11:00 to Fri 07 Jun 2019 17:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 07 Jun 2019 10:54
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/GATZEN/PUCIK

Mesoscale discussion regarding tornado and wind risk across northwest France and extreme southeast UK

Ahead of the surface cyclone named Miguel by IPMA, that is tracking northeastward across western France, the strong low-level wind field causes strong low-level wind shear. The ECMWF and COSMO-DE models boast in excess of 200m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity in association with strongly curved low-level hodographs and low cloud bases.

In response to diurnal heating this air-mass is gradually destabilizing and a few 100s of J/kg of MLCAPE are forecast. Low-topped small supercells with little lightning activity are expected. Given the strong shear, a marked risk of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will exist with any stronger cell.