Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 May 2019 06:00 to Thu 23 May 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 21 May 2019 21:59
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for northern Algeria and northern Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for northeastern Czech Republic and parts of Poland mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for southern Sweden mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for northeastern Turkey mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A complex synoptic-scale pattern persists over Europe with a number of separate cyclonic vortices contributing to a pool of low geopotentials dominating the weather pattern. The centres of vortices will be located over the Northern Sea, southeastern Poland and Corsica. Stronger mid-tropospheric flow will be confined to the southern Mediterranean and Turkey.

Numerous areas will experience isolated to widespread thunderstorms, mostly under weakly sheared conditions with modest lapse rates of around 6.5 K/km and mixing ratios up to 11 g/kg. Several regions, such as Sweden, parts of Russia and Poland deserve attention regarding the heavy rainfall, as training convection may occur along the initiating convergence zones in the environment of high RH throughout low to mid troposphere. On the other hand, Algeria, Tunisia and Turkey will be under stronger shear, reaching around 20 m/s in the 0-6 km layer. Linear and long hodographs will support multicells and splitting supercells capable of isolated large hail and/or severe wind gusts.