Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Apr 2019 06:00 to Tue 30 Apr 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 29 Apr 2019 03:38
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued over Bulgaria mainly for large hail.
A level 1 was issued over N Turkey mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

A large low-mid level low pressure system is over southeastern Europe and Italy. A stationary front with warm slightly unstable air stretches across Poland and Ukraine. Warm unstable air and weak low pressure is also present over Iberian Peninsula, Balkan and Turkey. A jet stream rounds the upper level trough over Italy creating enhanced vertical shear over the Balkan.


DISCUSSION

...Bulgaria and N Turkey...

Development of modest CAPE of a few hundred J/kg but strong DLS (>20 m/s in Bulgaria, 15 m/s Turkey) under the jet stream could enhance updraft strength and rotation, beneficial for large hail.