Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 20 Apr 2019 06:00 to Sun 21 Apr 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 19 Apr 2019 16:38
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for SE Spain mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

Ongoing blocking pattern features persistent ridging over NW/N Europe with low geopotential heights over E/SE and far SW Europe. At least two distinct upper cold-core vortices drift S over E Europe but meager BL moisture precludes an augmented thunderstorm threat until 06Z (excluding isolated nocturnal thunderstorm activity over Belarus) .
A dissolving/occluding front is analyzed over Spain with an ongoing but gradually weakening rainfall threat in its vicinity.

DISCUSSION

... Lightning areas ...

An ongoing heavy to excessive rainfall event over SE Spain weakens gradually until noon. Until then, level 1 rainfall conditions may occur and a confined level 1 was issued. An isolated waterspout event is also possible along the coastal areas in the level 1. Beyond noon no severe risk exists.

Over CNTRL France a dissolving upper low results in another day with an overlap of augmented mid-level lapse rates and moderate BL moisture. 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE and weak shear support isolated to scattered pulsating thunderstorms, which tend to grow upscale betimes. Graupel/hail and heavy rain are possible with strongest storms/slow moving clusters, but ingredients don't support an upgrade. Hail may locally approach our severe criterion due to rather dry mid/low levels and modest CAPE in the graupel layer. This activity diminishes beyond sunset.