Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 01 Apr 2019 06:00 to Tue 02 Apr 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 01 Apr 2019 02:55
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

At sea level, a high pressure system is present over the Baltic region, while the southern half of Europe has an absence of organized weather systems, with weak cyclonic circulation over the Iberian Peninsula and western France. Relatively warm conditions prevail south of the line Netherlands - Slovakia with decent (7 K/km) low to mid level lapse rates. Low-level mixing ratios over 6 g/kg support a few hundred J/kg CAPE in GFS, ECMWF and ICON models, which can be guaranteed in Spain and Portugal, but over western France this 6-7 g/kg moisture appears to develop over a few hours out of morning conditions of only 4-5 g/kg which seems not realistic or effective given drier air above the BL. Weak dynamics, instability and shear are insufficient for severe phenomena.