Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 31 Mar 2019 06:00 to Mon 01 Apr 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 30 Mar 2019 08:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued across parts of E-Cyprus, Syria and Iraq mainly for isolated large hail and excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

Numerous upper vortices with weak/diffuse surface prints drift W/E over S-Europe, far displaced from the belt of strong westerlies over N-Europe. Cold mid-levels atop modest BL moisture and diurnal heating create numerous areas with enhanced thunderstorm probabilities over SW/SE Europe.
Spotty and short-lived/non-severe thunderstorms are possible downstream of the Baltic Sea and also ahead of a quasi-stationary cold front over NE France to CNTRL Germany.

No substantial surface front impacts today's outlook.

DISCUSSION

...Portugal, Spain and N-Morocco/NW-Algeria...

Cold mid-levels atop weak onshore flow of a moist marine BL layer create diurnal driven SBCAPE in the 300-600 J/kg range. Peak values occur during the afternoon with peak heating. Weak deep layer flow and forecast low-end to modest CAPE values support pulsating thunderstorms with small hail and gusty winds the main hazard. Large amounts of small hail are possible with a moist troposphere, thin/elongated CAPE profiles and slow storm motions. Local heavy rain is also possible. This activity decays rapidly around sunset except some offshore storms which may persist well into the night.

A similar setup exists over N-Morocco/NW-Algeria.

... Far E-Mediterranean, Syria and Iraq ...

A quasi-stationary deep cyclonic vortex sits over/just east of Cyprus with an ongoing favorable connection to the main moisture source, namely the Persian Gulf. Neutral mid-level lapse rates and temporal diabatic heating will be adequate for ongoing showers and thunderstorms - maximized along the upslope flanks of the Taurus Mountains. DLS around 10 m/s and veer-back-veer profiles limit chances for organized updrafts, but SBCAPE in the 400-800 J/kg range may already support isolated large hail. In addition, slow storm motions and clustering cause heavy rain. Given very wet antecedant conditions, flash flooding is possible.
A surge of steeper mid-level lapse rates due to differential temperature advection and strengthening shear in the hail growth zone with enlarged CAPE profiles carry the isolated large hail risk over Iraq through the night.

E-Cyprus was added to the level 1 as a decaying shallow warm-core vortex induces repeatedly onshore moving thunderstorms with heavy rain. This vortex continues to spin down with ongoing model discrepancies about its final track.