Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 20 Mar 2019 06:00 to Thu 21 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 19 Mar 2019 21:23
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across eastern Tunisia mainly for excessive rainfall.


SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A ridge will spread from the Atlantic towards British Isles and Germany, separating an active weather pattern over NW Europe with fast moving frontal system and a relatively stagnant mid to upper tropospheric low centered over Algeria.

This low will result in a deep layer of easterly flow from the Mediterranean Sea towards Tunisia and a strong isentropic lift is forecast along the warm front that will remain over the area for much of the day. While models are not in good agreement regarding the exact placement of precipitation shield, forecast soundings from different NWP are consistent on simulating skinny CAPE, low LCLs and high RH throughout much of troposphere, suggestive of efficient rainfall processes.

Isolated to scattered, diurnally driven, DMC is forecast also over parts of Balkans and W Turkey, but should remain mostly non-severe in the environment of marginal CAPE and weak shear.