Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 17 Mar 2019 06:00 to Mon 18 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 16 Mar 2019 18:41
Forecaster: DAFIS

No threat levels have been issued

SYNOPSIS

Two Rossby waves will influence the weather in Europe on Sunday 17/03, as a ridge has been built in Central Europe and two long-wave troughs destabilize the troposphere in the western and eastern parts of the continent. Severe non-convective wind gusts are expected, especially in the North Sea and West Mediterranean (Mistral).

The western trough with a neutrally tilted axis over the British Isles and France will be associated with a deep surface low in the North Sea and lee-cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Genoa. In the warm sector of the first low-pressure system, some storms may develop near the coasts of Scandinavia but the most interesting area for thunderstorms will be in the cold sector, behind the low-level cold front. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast in a large area that covers Ireland, the UK, France, Benelux and North Germany, probably also some areas of Denmark. Areas with sunshine in the morning will be better candidates for storms later in the afternoon, driven by diurnal heating. One limiting factor for storms will be the middle-level dry air entrainment due to strong winds, so the most strong updrafts will survive to build flashes of lightning. Storm activity should stop in the night and during the early morning of Monday, the northern parts of Germany and Denmark may see a few flashes as well, as some positive PV anomaly over the area will provide lift to unstable air masses.

Another hotspot for thunderstorm activity will be the Middle East where a long-wave trough will dig south towards Turkey and Syria, providing large-scale lift to the eastern parts of its axis. Some small hail cannot be ruled out due to steep lapse rates and low wet-bulb temperatures, but long storm-motion vectors limit the probability for large accumulations of hail or precipitation in general.