Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 25 Feb 2019 06:00 to Tue 26 Feb 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Feb 2019 03:44
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for Crete mainly for tornadoes and excessive convective rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across southern Aegean Sea and eastern Mediterranean Sea and Cyprus mainly for tornadoes and isolated large hail.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A large anticyclone over western Europe maintains stable conditions. A low over the eastern Mediterranean has tight thermal and pressure gradients across the Aegean Sea. A few hundred J/kg CAPE has developed over this region, especially around Crete. Deep layer shear >20 m/s crosses this area, as well as strong SREH (200-500 m2/s2), in the morning between Crete and Greece mainland, and over/east of Crete, shifting eastwards during the evening, to Cyprus. However, convection may be elevated east of Crete and advection of dry Saharan air may be a problem. Should a storm develop under such shear, large hail and tornadoes are likely. For Crete the main threat comes from two persistent convergence lines to trigger storms with slow storm motion which can generate local excessive rain. The first one, oriented NE-SW affects the west of the island mainly during the morning. The second one will be E-W during afternoon and evening. Waterspouts and perhaps a mesocyclonic tornado are possible.