Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 20 Jan 2019 06:00 to Mon 21 Jan 2019 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Jan 2019 06:39
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Upstream of a tropospheric polar vortex over NE Scandinavia and W Russia extends an upper trough from CNTRL Europe to the SW towards the Iberian Peninsula. Numerous short-waves along the S fringe of the trough cross the Mediterranean during the forecast and result in a broad area with isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity. Most of Europe however remains covered by cold and dry air. Very cold mid-levels and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates may assist in spotty offshore/coastal thunderstorm activity over N/NE Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Lightning areas ...

For all regions DLS will be mostly in the 10-15 m/s range and SBCAPE below 500 J/kg. General activity stays sub-severe with gusty winds and graupel, but won't exclude isolated hail with stronger cores. Slow storm motion offers an heavy rainfall threat especially along the coast of Algeria all day long and the S coast of Turkey during the night. Moderate QPF amounts and modest low-tropospheric moisture content preclude an upgrade.
A few waterspouts are possible especially over the W/E Mediterranean, but missing foci for augmented spout probabilities preclude an upgrade.

A low probability lightning area was added for the Gulf of Riga and surroundings as the setup supports an organized band with showers/short-lived thunderstorms to move ashore. Apart from bursts of heavy snow and gusty winds nothing severe is forecast.