Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 05 Dec 2018 06:00 to Thu 06 Dec 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 04 Dec 2018 19:30
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across parts of Cyprus and E Mediterranean mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Much of Europe remains under dry and stable airmass with an extensive high pressure system centered over the Central Europe, moving eastwards during the forecast period. On its eastern flank, colder airmass is advected towards the Balkans and the Ionian Sea, coincident with an axis of a mid to upper tropospheric long-wave trough. Same as the high pressure system, the trough is forecast to translate eastwards during the day. On the western flank of the high, an active weather pattern is forecast for much of Western Europe as a pronounced short-wave, along with a frontal system, will move across S British Isles and France.

Strongly sheared situation is forecast over parts of W France with LLS exceeding 15 m/s locally. However, NWP is sceptical regarding development of surface-based buoyancy, which would, combined with shear, result in enhanced severe wind gust and tornado risk. Only low probability lightning line is warranted atm.

A risk of excessive rainfall will persist over the Eastern Mediterranean during the forecast period. Persistent, moist, southerly flow ahead of the surface low, underneath cool airmass at the mid-troposphere will result in a few hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE. Forecast soundings reveal very low LCLs, together with high RH throughout the tropopshere, promoting effective rainfall processes within thunderstorms.