Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 16 Nov 2018 08:00 to Sat 17 Nov 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 16 Nov 2018 08:26
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 is issued for Malta for large hail and flash floods.

A level 1 is issued for a small area in E Spain for flash floods.

SYNOPSIS

A large blocking high intensifies from S Scandinavia into European Russia. It is opposed by an equally large cut-off low over E and SE Europe with several subtle cores at 500 hPa. A particularly strong vorticity maximum moves from Austria (Fri 06 UTC) to the Balearic Islands (Sat 06 UTC) and supports a retrograde extension of the cut-off low into the central Mediterranean region. A broad SW-ward flow of continental cold air from Russia prohibits thunderstorms activity over most of the forecast domain.

DISCUSSION

... W and central Mediterranean region ...

Remnants of warmer and moist, unstable air over the Mediterranean Sea are gradually pushed towards the coasts of Tunisia and Spain, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible. The low CAPE magnitude, low cloud top heights and mostly weak vertical wind shear keep the severe weather risk low. Only around Malta, some hundred J/kg of CAPE in conjunction with 0-3 km shear of 10 m/s could be enough to support a few backbuilding multicells with a risk of marginally large hail and heavy rain.
Over E Spain, forecast models agree that the current (Fri 08 UTC) stationary thunderstorm activity near Valencia will go on until the afternoon. A few flash floods are not ruled out.