Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 14 Nov 2018 06:00 to Thu 15 Nov 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 15 Nov 2018 05:32
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued fort he Balearic Islands and surroundings mainly for excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for western Syria mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

Downstream development is associated with amplification of the European high that ridges into NW Europe. The trough over eastern Europe spreads south and later west. At low levels, dry air masses advect into the east and central Mediterranean, whereas rich low-level remains in the subtle vortex near the Balearic Islands. This moisture overlaps with modest lapse rates, resulting in some 100s J/kg CAPE. Marginal CAPE can be also possible to the south-west of the Iberian Peninsula, north-west of the British Isles, and far east Mediterranean late in the period.

DISCUSSION

West Mediterranean

In weak shear, convective storms are expected to be rather short-lived, concentrating along land-sea-breeze fronts. Main threat of these storms is excessive rain given the slow storm motion. Pulse storms may be capable of producing marginal severe hail.

North of the British Isles

Showers and scattered thunderstorms may develop in a relatively moist maritime air mass that is affected by a sharp short-wave trough and associated steep lapse rates. Given about 25 m/s wind speed at 850 hPa, there is a potential for severe wind gusts.

East Mediterranean

At the south-eastern flank of the deepening east-European trough, moist maritime air masses are advected onshore. Although lapse rates are limited, some weak CAPE is expected in the night hours. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast with a potential of producing excessice precipitation.