Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 25 Oct 2018 06:00 to Fri 26 Oct 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Oct 2018 04:48
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued for the east Mediterranean including eastern Turkey and Syria mainly for large or very large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rain, and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for the eastern Black Sea region mainly for excessive rain, and to a lesser extent excessive rain and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A broad ridge is centered over south-western Europe. Downstream, a deep trough crosses the Black Sea and Turkey and also affects the east Mediterranean. At the western flank of low geopotential across northern Europe, a new trough diggs southward over western Europe at the end of the forecast period. At lower levels, very dry air is located within the eastern trough and spreads into the east Mediterranean. Better low-level moisture is situated over central and western Europe and the west Mediterranean, but large-scale sinking has lead to stable lapse rates. Due to the lack of instability, chances for thunderstorms a pretty low over Europe. An exception is the far east Mediterranean and the east Black Sea region, where low-level moisture is still present and overlaps with some steeper lapse rates.

DISCUSSION

East Mediterranean into eastern Turkey, Syria, and the east Black Sea region

A lifting jet affects south-eastern Europe especially in the morning hours. It is associated with long hodographs supportive for well-organized storms. At low levels, a cold front quickly progresses over the east Mediterranean, Turkey, and the Black Sea. Ahead of this cold front, there is plentiful moisture especially over the Sea that overlaps with modest lapse rates. MLCAPE ranges up to 1000 J/kg. Latest observations show well-organized storms over the east Mediterranean. These multicells and supercells will spread east, capable of producing all kinds of severe weather, including tornadoes than may be strong. Over Turkey and Syria, weaker moisture will still allow for CAPE and thunderstorms are expected to go on, also with the chance of severe weather. Over the Black Sea, storms are embedded in stratiform rain. These clusters have a lesser organization and severe threat is limited. However, tornadoes and severe wind gusts as well as excessive rain are still possible. During the day, low-level dry air advection from the west behind the cold front will lead to a decreasing chance of thunderstorms. A few storms may still form over the east Mediterranean, though. As deep layer vertical wind shear decreases at the same time, severe potential will also decrease.