Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sat 29 Sep 2018 12:00 to Sat 29 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 29 Sep 2018 12:29
Forecaster: ESTOFEX

This is an intermediate bulletin regarding Mediterranean cyclone 2018M02 because of intensification of the system.

System: 2018M02

At 29 SEP 1200UTC the storm centre was located near 37.0 N and 22.3 E
Estimated minimum pressure: 987 mb.
Maximum sustained winds: 33 m/s (65 kt, 120 km/h).
Maximum gusts: 40 m/s (80 kt, 140 km/h).

Since 06 UTC, the cyclone has further intensified as it made landfall in the southern Peloponnese. The centre has since then temporarily moved over water again. A brief eye covered by thin cirrus has become visible in VIS imagery since 9 UTC. The intensity estimate now suggests a Dvorak T4.0 number of 4.0 and a central pressure of 987 mb, as well as marginal hurricane wind speed of 33 m/s (65 kt). At 12 UTC Kalamata, a little north of the centre, reported a pressure of 989 mb, which corroborates this intensity estimate.

Near hurricane-force winds are affecting the far southern Peleponnese and the Cyclades. Torrential rainfall is expected to be the most important hazard though.

Severe flash floods with possible landslides are possible, particular in Southeastern Peloponnese, Attica, Euboia, and Eastern Thessaly where 100-300 mm storm totals are expected. These amounts are forecast for other regions:

Central and Eastern Makedonia: 80-160 mm

Western and Central Peloponnese, Central Greece, Southern and Western Crete, Turkish coastal regions from Kash until Canakkale: 30-100 mm

Cyclades: 30-60 mm

Additionally, storm surge of 1 to 1.5 m are likely on the Peloponnese coast.

Finally, there is a risk of tornadoes in the northeast quadrant of the cyclone, where long curved low-level hodographs are present, primarily affecting southern Peloponnese and Attica. For more details, refer to the convective forecast.

The next full MD will appear tonight at 21 UTC.