Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 24 Jul 2018 06:00 to Wed 25 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Jul 2018 23:08
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of SW Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Romania mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Turkey, S Ukraine and Georgia mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A ridge has formed in W Europe which will be replaced by a shortwave trough coming from the Atlantic and will create instability in parts of France and N Spain. Locally enhanced DLS and steep lapse rates increase the probability of large hail.
Another trough is over the Balkans, where steep lapse rates and moist LL air masses will lead to several storms able to produce large hail and severe wind gusts, mostly over Turkey. Several convergence zones in Ukraine will create slow-moving storms, producing locally excessive precipitation. Flash floods are also possible in N Turkey during the afternoon.
The storms in the Baltic States, Scandinavia and Italy are not expected to become severe as DLS and lapse rates will be weak.