Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Jul 2018 06:00 to Wed 18 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Jul 2018 22:11
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for Italy, most parts of the Balkans and NW Turkey mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia mainly for excessive precipitation, large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Low geopotentials and short-wave troughs destabilize the atmosphere over the European domain. A jet stream is placed over the Mediterranean where the more active storms were located on Monday 16/07. Several multicells or even supercells are currently in North Italy producing severe wind gusts and torrential rainfall, moving eastwards the Balkans. Elevated convection doesn't pose a threat for the Balkans, until the afternoon of Tuesday when storms will be able to produce large hail and severe wind gusts mostly in Albania, FYROM, North Greece and Bulgaria, later perhaps in NW Turkey. The areas with the best CAPE-shear/steep lapse rates overlap are drawn inside a level-1 area.

In Russia a LL vortex has formed in response to a mid-level cyclone and creates a boundary where several pulsating storms will develop in a very moist and warm environment. DLS is limited to 10-15 m/s but storms will be able to produce excessive precipitation even as single cells. Storm activity should weaken after sunset but several sporadic non-severe storms will continue to move west during the night.