Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 03 Jul 2018 06:00 to Wed 04 Jul 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 02 Jul 2018 20:18
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for parts of N-E France, Switzerland, W Austria and N Italy mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for S France, S Switzerland, and N Italy mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Two main cyclonic vortices can be found over Europe, one NW of the Iberian Peninsula and the other one over Belarus, with an embedded short-wave trough to the western parts of the cut-off low. A ridge extends from C Mediterranean towards the North Sea and very moist air masses west from Italy and south from France remain capped due to WAA. The best conditions for DMC can be found in France, Switzerland, N Italy and C Balkans, mainly due to weakly capped LL air-masses. Diurnal heating will mostly drive the convective phenomena, but also elevated convection during the night will sustain some non-severe thunderstorms.


DISCUSSION

.... N-E France, Switzerland, W Austria and N Italy ....

Slow-moving storms may produce excessive precipitation in a short period of time, thus flash floods will be the main threat. DLS remains weak and lapse rates in the order of 6 K/km, with thin vertical CAPE profiles, so no other severe phenomena are expected.

.... S France, S Switzerland, N Italy and Balkans .....

Quite the same conditions with the aforementioned areas are expected, but with more steep lapse rates and locally enhanced DLS. Some storms will be able to produce large hail and/or severe wind gusts.