Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 06 Jun 2018 06:00 to Thu 07 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 05 Jun 2018 16:15
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across parts of W, Central and SE Europe mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.

A level 1 was issued across parts of Algeria mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for S Turkey mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the foothills of Caucasus mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Little change in the synoptic-scale setup is forecast over Europe with a slow, east moving, vortex over Spain, a weak ridge over the Mediterranean and Central Europe, and a pronounced NW-ly flow over Russia. Persistent and large high pressure system confines the more abundant lower tropospheric moisture to the belt from Spain, across France, the Alpine range towards Romania and further into N Caucasus.

Weakly sheared environment is forecast once again over much of Europe with diurnally driven thunderstorms forming over the local topography or small-scale boundaries. Scattered to widespread convection will have a tendency to cluster with a threat of excessive precipitation due to the slow moving nature of storms. Furthermore, large hail may occur with sronger cells. Organisation of storms may be enhanced thanks to the flow modification (and subsequent shear enhancement) by local topography, particularly on the eastern flanks of the Alps.

More strongly sheared environment is forecast over parts of Algeria and on the rim of Caucasus, where 15 - 25 m/s of DLS may support well organised multi and supercells. Steep lapse rates and deep boundary layers in the forecast soundings suggest threats of large hail and severe wind gusts respectively.