Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 05 Jun 2018 06:00 to Wed 06 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 04 Jun 2018 21:27
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 1 was issued for France, Luxembourg, W Switzerland, and SW Germany mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for N Italy, S Austria Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An arctic air mass is crossing Scandinavia during the night of Monday 4 June, and a cold front is moving fast south towards Belarus and Ukraine, bringing cold and dry air in NE Europe where limited convective activity is expected. Several smaller disturbances can be found in West and Central Europe, where numerous storms will form during Tuesday 5 June. A cut-off low remains almost stationary in N Spain, another one is travelling north over Scotland, and the smallest but intense shortwave trough is placed over N Italy.

Diurnal heating will provide lift to unstable air masses over France, where models predict a very moist PBL and small values of NCAPE. Stationary storms will be able to produce flash floods or locally large amounts of small hail. Some microbursts may occur in the eastern parts of level 1 area, near the borders of Germany and France.

In N Italy and NW Balkans the steep lapse rates create fat CAPE profiles over areas with moist LL air masses. We expect locally large hail events, up to 2-3 cm in diameter. Moreover, the very weak wind profiles and the high PWAT suggest that storms will also be able to produce excessive precipitation in a small period of time.