Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 22 May 2018 06:00 to Wed 23 May 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 21 May 2018 22:18
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for E Poland, SW Belarus and W Ukraine mainly large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 covers a large part of Europe mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail and to a lesser extent severe convective wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for E Ukraine, W Russia, Georgia, Armenia, and Turkey, mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail, and to a lesser extent excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for E Algeria and Tunisia mainly for severe convective wind gusts

DISCUSSION

.... E Poland, SW Belarus and W Ukraine ....

A short-wave trough with substantial vorticity in mid-levels will stay over Poland during Tuesday, creating 15-20 m/s DLS where warm and moist air masses exist. Diurnal heating and synoptic lift will work together in widespread CI, and clustering of storms should start soon after the formation of the first cells. Supercells are not ruled out, able to produce all kinds of severe weather. Tornadoes are possible due to veering low-level winds and high SBCAPE. Hail may reach 5cm within the most well-organized storms.

.... Level 1 areas in Europe, Asia and N Africa ....

High-CAPE and low-shear prevail in Europe, and we expect numerous thunderstorms driven by diurnal heating. Local convergence zones may feed long-living storms able to produce flash floods, especially in N Italy, W Balkans and SW Russia. The steepest lapse rates will be found over Benelux, W-S Germany, and W Balkans, where large hail may form, but no more than 2-3cm. Finally, severe wind gusts may affect the aforementioned areas in the afternoon.