Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 01 May 2018 14:00 to Tue 01 May 2018 18:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 May 2018 14:31
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Ahead of a shortwave trough over Denmark and in vicinity of a surface low across Central/East Poland, a number of storms with distinct supercellular reflectivity characteristics have intiated in an environment with strong deep-layer shear (~25 m/s). Some 3 cm large hail was already observed.

Given that LCL heights are relatively high and CAPE should well exceed 1000 J/kg (per Legionowo sounding at 12 UTC), large hail is likely with these storms and some very large hail (5+ cm) is not ruled out. Damaging wind gusts are also possible.

The storms will likely rather slowly but gradually cluster as they track northeastward into eastern Lithuania, resulting in an increasing wind threat.