Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 26 Mar 2018 06:00 to Tue 27 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 26 Mar 2018 03:43
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across W Turkey, NE Greece and W Turkey mainly for chances of tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A mid-level trough now over the central Mediterranean and central Europe has advected relatively steep lapse rates out of the Sahara into the Balkan and Turkey. A northwesterly jet rounds the trough over the Iberian Pennsula, while the southwesterly jet blows over the Aegean Sea and western Turkey. Warm low level air advection causes veering wind profiles in the latter area, and a few hundred J/kg CAPE which in ECMWF and ICON are mostly capped. In GFS the least capped for mixed layer parcels is NW Turkey, but elevated convection seems also possible. The combination of over 250 m2/s2 SREH, 12-17 m/s 0-1 km shear and around 20 m/s 0-6 km shear in the least capped region could allow mesocyclones with tornadogenesis and perhaps isolated large hail, although CAPE is just modest.

Slight instability will form over southern France and over northeastern Iberian Peninsula where lapse rates are enhanced by low 500 hPa temperatures and föhn effect at the lee side of the Pyrenees. At night, slight instability can allow some convection over the western Mediterranean Sea.