Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Mar 2018 06:00 to Thu 22 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Mar 2018 23:45
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for a coastline of the Ionian Sea mainly for excessive precipitation.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

An outbreak of an arctic airmass from Siberia has reached SW Mediterranean by now, thus strongly limiting any potential for severe thunderstorms over the continent. The only exception will be a small area between NW Greece and Albania, where a WAA regime is forecast underneath a brisk SW to WSW-ly flow. Marginal instability is simulated by models at best with CAPE values mostly below 500 J/kg. While DLS will be very strong, exceeding 25 m/s, storms will likely be low-topped. Primary threat will be excessive precipitation most pronounced in the morning hours. If any stronger updraft develops within a band of convection, marginally large hail may occur, as well as severe wind gusts or a tornado thanks to the strong LLS. However, conditional probability of the latter three threats seems to be pretty low atm.