Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 28 Feb 2018 07:00 to Thu 01 Mar 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 28 Feb 2018 07:08
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Southern Portugal and Southwestern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

As the arctic airmass has overspread much of Europe, conditions are too hostile for deep, moist convection over most of the forecast domain. The only exception will be far southern Europe, specifically SW Turkey coastline and SW Iberia. For the latter, a broad and strong SW-ly has overspread the region with 850 hPa flow increasing to 20 m/s by 12 UTC. With the moisture being advected inland, NWP agrees on the development of marginal latent instability with CAPE values generally below 500 J/kg. DLS will exceed 20 m/s, so well organized convection is anticipated with mixed mode of supercells and line segments. Linear hodographs and strong lower tropospheric flow points to the primary threat of severe wind gusts. However, tornadoes will be possibe too, given strong LLS and low LCLs. Isolated excessive rainfall event may occur if a training pattern will develop along the rugged terrain of coastline areas. A solid Lvl 1 area is thus required for this area.