Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 28 Jan 2018 06:00 to Mon 29 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 27 Jan 2018 22:37
Forecaster: PISTOTNIK

A level 1 is issued for SE Spain for excessive convective precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

A strengthening westerly mid-level flow covers the northern half of Europe. A mature and filling surface cyclone moves from S Norway (Sun 06 UTC) to Estonia (Mon 06 UTC), followed by a frontal wave that translates across Scotland. Mild and very moist Atlantic air invades the British Isles in its broad warm sector under shallow mid-level ridging.
Most of the southern half of Europe experiences dry, mild conditions under an extensive zonal bridge of high pressure from the Bay of Biscay to the eastern Mediterranean. The influence of a stray retrograde cut-off low over Morocco on southern Iberia decreases.

DISCUSSION

...SW Europe ...

Scattered, mostly embedded convection will still be active in SE Spain, where moist and slightly unstable air is persistently advected against the coast. A few flash floods are possible. Otherwise, weak vertical wind shear keeps the severe weather risk low.
These storms will gradually decay by evening, when subsidence and a strengthening cap overspread the region from the east. Convective activity will then shift to Moroccan waters instead.

... N Poland, Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, Lithuania ...

The occlusion of the Scandinavian cyclone is placed under the left exit region of the advancing mid-level jet, but its lift is largely cancelled by cold air advection. Leftovers of a possible convective line over S Sweden, if any (see previous outlook), will therefore likely die until the beginning of this forecast period. If they survive longer than anticipated, 20-25 m/s flow at 850 hPa and strong vertical wind shear would allow severe wind gusts.