Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 04 Jan 2018 06:00 to Fri 05 Jan 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 03 Jan 2018 23:22
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the southern Aegean for extreme rainfall, severe wind gusts, and to a lesser extent large hail and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION

Southern Aegean, Turkey

With a north-westerly flow, a jet streak moves into the central and east Mediterranean. At its cyclonically sheared flank lapse rates increase is expected and steep lapse rates can overlap with some maritime moisture advected northward ahead of a cold front. Along this front, strong lift and weak CAPE are expected, and given strong vertical wind shear, multicells are forecast to merge into an MCS. Main threat will be excessive rain and severe wind gusts. Locally, large hail is not ruled out. Furthermore, strong low-level vertical wind shear could result in a tornado or two. Main activity spreads east during the period.