Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 25 Oct 2017 06:00 to Thu 26 Oct 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 25 Oct 2017 05:59
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for E Greece, SW coastline of the Black Sea and S Turkey mainly for excessive rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

While much of Europe is under dry and stable conditions, scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing under the core of the mid tropospheric low centered over SE Europe. Moderately steep lapse rates (6.5 to 7 K/km in 800 to 600 hPa layer) compensate for the lack of abundant lower tropospheric moisture and marginal CAPE values are anticipated over the region. Overall severe weather threat will be low with mostly disorganized convection over the Aegean Sea due to weak vertical wind shear. Stronger shear, but still overlapping only with marginal instability is forecast over the Black Sea and S coastline of Turkey. Easterly surface flow impinging on the coastline may result in repetitive development of cells over some locations and a Lvl 1 is introduced for the possibility of excessive precipitation. Some waterspout activity is possible as well, thanks to low LCLs and cool airmass aloft.