Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 11 Oct 2017 06:00 to Thu 12 Oct 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 10 Oct 2017 20:46
Forecaster: PUCIK

No threat levels have been issued.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Synoptic scale situation will be dominated by a deep trough residing over much of eastern Europe, followed by a ridge over France, Germany and a trough affecting British Isles. These features will translate eastwards during the course of the forecast period. Despite seemingly active large-scale pattern, lack of either abundant lower tropospheric moisture and/or of steep mid tropospheric lapse rates will preclude any DMC risk over most of the forecast area. Two areas may see isolated, weakly electrified DMC.

The first one being the Northern Sea behind the cold front passing overnight towards Thursday morning. Marginal CAPE may build up in the core of the trough thanks to the steep lapse rates. Seemingly favourable synoptic scale forcing will occur along the cold front close to Denmark, in the left exit region of a jet-streak in the upper troposphere. Due to the lack of moisture, chances for strongly forced squall line seem quite low atm.

The second area with isolated DMC will be over the Ionian Sea with marginal CAPE on the order of hundreds J/kg under the base of the large trough.