Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 03 Aug 2017 15:00 to Thu 03 Aug 2017 19:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Aug 2017 15:26
Forecaster: GATZEN

... NE Germany, NW Poland ...

WV satellite imagery indicates that the mid-level front of an intense jet streak has moved into N Germany and mid-level clouds have dissipated over E Germany. Ahead of the surface cold front currently entering north-central Germany, enhanced cumulus clouds are visible on the latest satellite images. First storms are exploding and will move ENE-ward in the following hours, entering and air mass supportive of further intensification due to plentiful low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating in the coming hour. Additionally, backed low-level winds from the south result in strong vertical wind shear.
It is expected that supercells will evolve and move into E and NE Germany, which will stay rather isolated given weak cold pool potential and favorable vertical wind shear. Given LCL heights below 1000 meters and curved, long low-level hodographs, these storms are capable of producing tornadoes that may be strong. Additionally, severe wind gusts and large hail are possible.
Activity will shift into W Poland in the evening with ongoing severe weather potential.